The Tao of OGA

We Are On To Something.  In a comprehensive study of NHL statistics since the 2004-2005 Lockout, we have found a key.  This key – the Playoff Qualifying Curve, or PQC – unlocks predictions of who will, and will not, qualify for the NHL playoffs.

“So what?” you exclaim. “Everybody in hockey media circles does that.”  But do they know this with 85% accuracy for an average of 17 teams by 1 January and for more than two-thirds of the NHL weeks before the trade deadline? WE DO and we are On Goal Analysis – OGA.

At OGA we are dedicated to a strategic study of NHL team performance and ability to qualify for the postseason.  Our ”Daily Tip In” report is compiled every night after all games are concluded, each NHL team's performance has been measured against our proprietary PQC and every team's progress toward their goal of reaching the Playoffs has been determined.  It is then emailed to the address of your choosing early in the day for your review.  You will be surprised by what we have uncovered.  An average of five teams’ fates decided by the end of October…six more in November…ANOTHER FIVE IN DECEMBER! Stats in professional Hockey will never be viewed the same again! Subscribing to the “Daily Tip In” report puts YOU in the know.

In addition to the value-priced Daily Tip In (only $10 for the entire season!), OGA provides regular analysis (at no charge) in The OGA Blogs which reside right on our home page.  Among other current Hockey topics, our blogs detail who we think will move on into the post-season, after each team completes a 10-game segment of their schedule.

We love the game of Hockey and want to share our unique insight and enthusiasm with you.  After all, first and foremost, we are fans.  But are we fanatical?  You bet.  We are On Goal Analysis.

Not sure what to think? 

We understand.  It’s a lot to take in at one time.  Allow us to peel back the curtain a little further.

In the 2007-2008 NHL season, the (eventual Stanley Cup Champion) Detroit Red Wings were the first team in the league to mathematically clinch a playoff berth, doing so on March 5, 2008.  At the other end of the spectrum, the Los Angeles Kings had the dubious distinction of being the first team mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, bowing out on February 16, 2008.  While these facts are acknowledged by the fans, media and the teams themselves, we at On Goal Analysis know the truth: the Red Wings were indeed the first team in the NHL to clinch a playoff berth.  However, they did so on October 24, 2007, not four months later.  And the Kings can hold their crown a bit higher, as our analysis of the PQC revealed the Atlanta Thrashers were eliminated from playoff contention on October 25, 2007!

Are the above statements outrageous? 

Yes.  Can On Goal Analysis back them up?  Absolutely.  At OGA, we venture beyond the normal, tactical analysis of team performance (e.g., How will the addition of a solid power-play quarterback improve San Jose’s chances?), in favor of a strategic view.  We have identified several team performance factors which, when measured against real-time team play and the rest of the league, provide us with a remarkably accurate assessment of an individual team’s  playoff chances earlier than traditionally called.

How accurate are OGA’s assessments?

OGA calls teams IN or OUT of the playoffs with a high degree of accuracy and far in front of the “mathematical” call.  Last season, for example, we were correct 89.7% of the time and an average of 84 days before the actual mathematical call.  Have we missed a few?  Sure – teams do defy expectations from time to time. (Thank you, Washington! - in fact, were it not for the Capitals’ amazing run in the spring of 2008 to clinch a playoff spot, OGA would have been perfect in elimination calls in '07-'08.)

Which “key team performance factors” does OGA use to make their calls? 

Does a grill master tell you all of the ingredients in his award-winning barbeque sauce?  No!  We can say this, however:  at OGA, we have developed our proprietary PQC along or above which teams must consistently perform in order to clinch a spot in the playoffs.  Through careful and thorough analysis, we are able to state with high and early accuracy that teams are either IN or OUT of the playoffs when they reach a given height above, or fall to a certain depth below, the PQC at any point in the season.  This is how we can state with certainty four teams were in the playoffs (and the New York Islanders were out) by 1 November of last season’s campaign, for instance.

Okay, I am intrigued.  What does this mean for Hockey? 

The long-accepted “mathematical” method of calling teams IN or OUT of the playoffs is no longer the only method.  It is useful, however, in confirming what we at On Goal Analysis already know.  By February 16, 2008 (the date of the first mathematical elimination of the '07/'08 season), OGA had correctly called 22 teams either IN or OUT of the playoffs. During the '08-'09 season, OGA knew by February 14, 2009 that 21 teams were already either Chasing Stanley (IN) or at Tee Time (OUT), the same day the New York Islanders won the John Tavares sweepstakes became the first mathematically eliminated team.

Hockey fans have a new method by which to gauge the performance of their favorite team, as well as insightful analysis on what you can expect next in their journey toward Chasing (Lord Stanley.

Management now has a valuable new tool.  Significantly, we indicate when teams reach the brink of possible elimination, potentially triggering any number of team actions.

Media analysts now have new insight into the teams they cover. Is a three-game slump the second week in November cause for alarm?  Most analysts would say no.  OGA might know otherwise.

And fantasy Hockey enthusiasts will have access to key measures and insights for what to expect and how to plan for the weeks ahead. OGA monitors your players' teams against our PQC and indicates when their new reality calls for adjustments on the ice.

Our Products

At OGA, we like to keep it simple. We provide you with two products. The Daily Tip In report tells you each and every morning of the regular season how all teams stack up in their bid to secure a Playoff berth. In the regular season report, we detail:

·         Each team’s current PQC rating and/or key team notes

·         The difference between current PQC and what is needed to enter the Playoffs

·         Projected finish in the standings

·         And daily ALERTS to any change in team status against the PQC

The Daily Tip In is delivered to you via email each and every morning of the regular season. See a sample of the Daily Tip-In here…

Having any trouble reading the Sample on your computer? Email us for a hard copy.

Not sure about the Daily Tip In? Then simply read The OGA Blogs after ALL teams complete each 10-game segment for your analysis. Just know that you will be several steps behind your Daily Tip In counterparts. When will we report on the teams’ performance in The OGA Blogs? Here is the schedule:

·         Game 10 – 1 November 2009

·         Game 20 – 23 November 2009

·         Game 30 – 13 December 2009

·         Game 40 – 3 January 2010

·         Game 50 – 24 January 2010

·         Game 60 – 15 February 2010

·         Game 70 – 21 March 2010

·         Game 82 – 12 April 2010

View Our Report Subscription Option Here

Delivering The Goods

As a subscriber, you will receive each Daily Tip In report via email no later than 9:00am CST daily.

Contact us to hook your subscription reservation now by emailing shotongoal@ongoalanalysis.com. You will be contacted within 24 hours by an OGA staff member.

On our site, you will also find pertinent news, commentary and analysis on all 30 teams from our  OGA staff bloggers, periodic opinion polls, and much more!

We love the game of Hockey and hope to share our unique insight and enthusiasm with you.  We are not talking touchdowns in NCAA Football or the NFL, home runs in MLB, sprinting down the homestretch at Churchill Downs, or sizing up the Cricket pitch.  After all, first and foremost, we are NHL fans. 

But are we fanatical?  You bet.  We are On Goal Analysis.

Show me the sample Daily Tip In Report again

Check out the OGA Blogs feed

Tell the OGA staff you want more subscription information at shotongoal@ongoalanalysis.com – a member of the OGA staff will contact you within 24 hours.