On
Goal Analysis
THE Strategic Hockey Timeout
 from TSN.ca 12 June 2009 |
OGA's 2008/09 Season PQC Report Card For the 2008/9 NHL regular season, On Goal Analysis (OGA) predicted who would be IN or OUT of the playoffs with 89.7% accuracy and an average of 84 days before the same mathematical call. Using On Goal Analysis' proprietary Playoff Qualifying Curve (PQC), teams were analyzed along a minimum standard that equals entry into the 2009 Playoffs and labeled at Chasing Stanley - IN - or at Tee Time - OUT - of post-season action. How did the calls unfold as the season progressed? Find out here… 24 October 2008: The New York Rangers. At Game 10, the Rangers were called Chasing Stanley – IN the playoffs – after their best start since the Lockout. The season’s earliest calls are somewhat risky. But the Rangers held strong above The Curve right through Game 50. A bit of a slump ensued through the rest of the season where they played .471 Hockey. But they ended in the #7 Eastern Conference seed and aligned against the Washington Capitals in Round 1 of the 2009 Playoffs. OGA: 1-for-1 (100%) 28 October 2008: The San Jose Sharks. At Game 10, the Sharks were called Chasing Stanley, again, after a best start since the Lockout. From Game 30 – 60, San Jose cooled a bit but still held their own above The Curve. It was from Game 61 – 82 that they only played .480 Hockey and left media questioning and fans scratching their heads. The Sharks finished the season as the President’s Trophy winner and the #1 Western Conference seed against the Anaheim Ducks. OGA: 2-for-2 (100%) 29 October 2008: The Detroit Red Wings. At Game 10, the Red Wings were called Chasing Stanley after their second best start since the Lockout. The Winged Wheel played above The Curve in all but the Game 41 – 50 and 71 – 82 periods. Playing .458 Hockey in their last 12 games, they gave cause for Detroit concern, but landed the #2 Western Conference seed and a matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets. OGA: 3-for-3 (100%) 1
November 2008: The Minnesota Wild. At Game 10, the Wild were
called Chasing Stanley – IN the playoffs – after their third
best start since the Lockout. Dropping 12.5% and 6% in output in
these 10 games since the 2006/7 season should have been a clue,
however. The Wild had trouble from Game 21 – 40 and 51 – 80
where they played .480 Hockey in those timeframes. When OGA
calls a team IN or OUT of the playoffs, we stick with that call
for the sake of determining our PQC’s accuracy, however, as we
did here. As you know, and based on their play above, the Wild
finished as a Shot Off The Post – an incorrect PQC call – and in
the #9 Western Conference seed where they watched the beginning
of the playoffs on TV for the first time since 2007.
OGA: 3-for-4 (75%) 1 November 2008: The Montreal Canadiens. At Game 10, the Canadiens were called Chasing Stanley after their best start since the Lockout. Les Habs remained strong through Game 50 and then hit the skids as they only won 3.5 games of 10 in the Game 51 – 60 stretch. While this lull doesn’t sound like much, it pushed determination of their No. 8 Eastern Conference playoff seed to their, and the Panthers’, last game. Still squeaking into their Round 1 sweep, they nonetheless stand as a correct OGA call. OGA: 4-for-5 (80%) 1 November 2008: The New York Islanders. At Game 10, the Islanders were called at Tee Time, OGA’s first out-of-the-playoff call for the 2008/9 season. Not only was this start no better than the 2007/8 season before it, it constituted .372 Hockey for the season as a whole. Upward from here is not going to be an issue. OGA: 5-for-6 (83.33%) 17 November 2008: The Boston Bruins. At Game 18, the Bruins were called Chasing Stanley after their best start since the Lockout. This team remained on fire for the season, finishing one point shy of the President’s Trophy. Their only, slight lull was in the Game 56 – 70 timeframe where they “only” won seven of 15 games. Otherwise, they played .781 Hockey enroute to the top seen in the Eastern Conference. OGA – 6-for-7 (85.7%) 18 November 2008: The Pittsburgh Penguins. At Game 18, the Penguins were called Chasing Stanley after their best start to that point in the season since the Lockout. The Pens gave us all cause for alarm as the season continued, however. In Games 26 – 45 and 51 – 55, the team only played .320 Hockey, initiating the doom-sayer crowd and the ouster of Coach Therrien. Despite this drastic dip, OGA stuck by its prediction (as always). And with a new coach, they played .778 Hockey in Games 56 – 82 earning them the No. 4 seed in the East and a Cup raising in mid-June. OGA – 7-for-8 (87.5%) 19 November 2008: The Washington Capitals. At Game 18, the Capitals were called Chasing Stanley after their best start since the Lockout. The Caps played the first 10 games just barely over the curve, but those long on memory will remember Alex Ovechkin missing several games in this timeframe. Thereafter, they played above The Curve in five-of-seven 10-game furlongs and only half a game under in the other two. Overall during the season, they played .640 Hockey which helped them secure the No. 2 seed in the Eastern Conference. OGA – 8-for-9 (88.89%) 20 November 2008: The Vancouver Canucks. At Game 20, the Canucks were called Chasing Stanley after what tied with the 2005/6 campaign as their best start since the Lockout. Starting with Game 23, the confidence factor in their No. 2 netminder in the absence of an injured Roberto Luongo waned and they only played .433 Hockey. But Luongo and lifted the team up on his shoulders for a .750 Hockey finish from Game 51 through the end of the season, netting the Canucks the No. 3 seed and a battle with Chicago in the Western Conference Semi-Finals. OGA – 9-for-10 (90%) 22 November 008: The Chicago Blackhawks. At Game 19, the Blackhawks were called Chasing Stanley after their best start since the Lockout. In a display of an obviously successful plan of team growth, the ‘Hawks improved their PQC for the fourth straight season in 2008/9 and played better than any other previously measurable period from Game 10 onward. There was a slight lull in the ‘W’ in Games 56 – 70, but this team played .629 Hockey from their Chasing Stanley call to season’s end, earning the Western No. 4 seed along the way and seeing the Conference Finals against the Red Wings. OGA – 10-for-11 (90.9%) 8 December 2008: The Tampa Bay Lightning. At Game 27, the Lightning were called at Tee Time after their worst-at-Game-20 start since the Lockout. At that point in the season, the Bolts were only a -1 against the PQC and were holding their own. But the wheels came off the whole thing thereafter as Tampa Bay only equaled the PQC in the Game 41 – 50 furlong for the rest of the season. Their .387 Hockey play from Game 26 onwardnetted them the 14th seed back East and made them the second Tee Time call of the season. OGA – 11-for-12 (91.67%) 12 December 2008: The Atlanta Thrashers. At Game 28, the Thrashers were called at Tee Time after their worst 30-game start since the Lockout. Atlanta only played .400 Hockey through Game 60 which made it impossible to pull themselves out of a tailspin despite playing .773 Hockey over their last 22 games. The 13th seed in the Eastern Conference was their destiny last season. OGA – 12-for-13 (92.31%) 13 December 2008: The Philadelphia Flyers. At Game 29, the Flyers were called Chasing Stanley after tying the 2005/6 season as their best 30-game start since the Lockout. Their play up to Game 30 was .667 Hockey. They ‘hung on’ as it were from Game 31 on as they only averaged .567 Hockey overall which was enough to secure them the #5 Eastern Conference seed, but pitted them against the eventual Stanley Cup Champions in the 1st round of the Playoffs. OGA – 13-for-14 (92.9%) 16 December 2008: The St. Louis Blues. At Game 30, the Blues were called at Tee Time – OUT of the playoffs – after their second best 30-game start since the Lockout. St. Louis played right on The Curve through Game 20, but tanked their PQC in Games 21 – 30 with only 3.5 wins out of 10 games. Their woes continued on through Game 40 where they combined through the first half of the season to play .438 Hockey. Their second half of the season was like night and day from the first as they played .679 Hockey, qualified for the Western Conference’s #6 Playoff seed and, much to everyone’s delite in St. Louis, rang as OGA’s second Shot Off The Post – an incorrect PQC call. OGA: 13-for-15 (86.67%) 17 December 2008: The New Jersey Devils. At Game 29, the Devils were called Chasing Stanley despite their worst 30-game start since the Lockout. Through Game 50, the Sens played .420 Hockey and never played at or above The PQC. Salvaging some pride at year’s end, they played .641 Hockey from Game 51 through the end of the season. But, alas, this would serve as too little, too late as all they could find was the #11 Eastern seed and the 19th Hole to watch games from. OGA – 14-for-16 (87.5%) 19
December 2008: The Ottawa Senators. At Game 30, the Senators
were called at Tee Time after their best start since the
Lockout. The season’s earliest calls are somewhat risky. But the
Rangers held strong above The Curve right through Game 50. A bit
of a slump ensued through the rest of the season where they
played .471 Hockey. But they ended in the #7 Eastern Conference
seed and aligned against the Washington Capitals in Round 1 of
the 2009 Playoffs. OGA – 15-for-17 (88.2%)
At this point in the season, OGA PQC indicated
more than half of the NHL
IN or OUT of the 2009 Playoffs with better than 88% accuracy and
an average of 62.7 games/117.3 days before the mathematical call
of IN or OUT of the playoffs was made. A total of 11-out-of-16
Playoff teams were identified by this point, all more than two
months ahead of the Trade Deadline. 3 January 2009: The Calgary Flames. At Game 38, the Flames were called Chasing Stanley after their best 40-game start since the Lockout since the 2005/6 season. Calgary played right along The Curve through Game 30, and then surged in the Game 31 – 40 furlong, winning 8.5 of 10 games. They hit a bit of a skid in their last 22 games, playing only .455 Hockey, a possible precursor to their Playoff performance. Riding the tide of their .650 Hockey play through Game 60, they nevertheless secured the 5th seed in the West, losing in Round 1 of the Playoffs to the surging Blackhawks. OGA–16-for-18 (88.89%) 6 January 2009: The Nashville Predators. At Game 39, the Predators were called at Tee Time after their worst 40-game start since the Lockout. Nashville played right along The Curve through Game 30, but a terrible 3-in-10 wins in the Game 31-40 forced OGA’s hand in making the call. At the end of the season, the Preds gave the rest of the West a scare as it looked like they might overcome that one earlier slip, but they could not play high enough over The Curve to gain the ground required to land in the Playoffs. Their destiny was the West’s #10 seed and another correct call for OGA. OGA – 17-for-19 (89.47%) 6 January 2009: The Toronto Maple Leafs. At Game 40, the Maple Leafs were called at Tee Time after their worst 40-game start since the Lockout. Toronto played under The Curve at .475 Hockey through Game 40. They also played under the curve on through Game 60 and again for Games 71 – 82 for their worst overall season since the Lockout. They finished as the Eastern Conference #12 seed. OGA – 18-for-20 (90%) 27 January 2009: The Colorado Avalanche. At Game 48, the Avalanche were called at Tee Time after their worst 40-game start since the Lockout. Colorado played under The Curve overall at .421 Hockey, in large measure due to a tremendous loss of man games for injury. That said, they only met or exceeded The PQC twice in eight evaluation periods and finished as the West’s #15 seed. OGA – 19-for-21 (90.5%) 31 January 2009: The Los Angeles Kings. At Game 48, the Avalanche were called at Tee Time after their second BEST 50-game start since the Lockout. Los Angeles played just enough under The Curve at .510 Hockey, at the end of January that strong play down the stretch could have made them a Shot Off The Post incorrect call by OGA. However, when they needed that extra push, they actually played .438 Hockey in the other direction, landing them the Western Conference #14 seed. OGA – 20-for-22 (90.91%) 12 February 2009: The Phoenix Coyotes. At Game 56, the Coyotes were called at Tee Time after their second worst 56-game start since the Lockout. Phoenix played .500 Hockey up to this point, and actually met or (barely) exceeded The PQC three of five, 10-game evaluation periods in that span. But 4-in-10 wins in the Game 11-20 timeframe, and 6-in-15 in Games 41 – 55 forced OGA’s call. That was reinforced by .406 Hockey play to finish out the season where the ‘Yotes landed in the #13 seed out West. OGA – 21-for-23 (91.3%) 18 February 2009: The Anaheim Ducks. At Game 59, the Ducks were called at Tee Time after their worst 59-game start since the Lockout. Anaheim held their own at or above the PQC through Game 30, but fell just enough under it from Game 31 – 59 to force the Tee Time call. Their deficit was not monstrous, however, and strong parity and competition in the West saw them gain back the ground they needed by playing .682 Hockey for Games 61 – 82. The Ducks qualified for the Western Conference’s #8 Playoff seed and rang as OGA’s last of three Shots Off The Post. OGA: 21-for-24 (87.5%) Anaheim was the last IN or OUT call prior to the 4 March 09 Trade Deadline. At that point in the season, OGA had called 24 of 30 teams’ Playoff entry fate with 87.5% accuracy, a number more than 15% higher than the average winning percentage of any NHL team for the entire season. Does the Trade Deadline happen too late in the season? We say yes for two reasons. Firstly, hindsight tells us the only trades that truly made a difference for any team in reaching the ultimate goal of raising The Cup were Guerin and Kunitz to Pittsburgh. And secondly, using the PQC you can argue the season was 80% decided before the deadline. We would never say trades are not a necessity to make a team the best possible club it can be. But we would strongly argue that there was more room to influence an organization’s Playoff fate if their last trades were made by Christmas when only 1/3 of the NHL’s fate was decided. 20 March 2009: The Dallas Stars. At Game 72, the Stars were called at Tee Time after their worst performance since the Lockout. A 3-in-10 wins stint from Game 11 – 20 hurt them the most as they were only playing .500 Hockey at Game 40 and peaked at .550 Hockey 10 games later. They hung by a precarious thread through Game 69, and then dropped Games 70 – 72 to seal their fate, and reinforced it with one each Shootout and Overtime loss in the next four games. They finished as the Western Conference #12 seed, their worst showing since the Lockout. OGA – 22-for-25 (88%) 26 March 2009: The Columbus Blue Jackets. At Game 74, the Blue Jackets were called Chasing Stanley in their best performance against the PQC since the Lockout. At Game 40, they were in the same .500 Hockey boat as Dallas which was still a game behind their previously best 40-game mark. Unlike the Stars, however, they continued to improve their overall play throughout the rest of the season, ending with their best PQC performance since the Lockout and the Western Conference #7 seed for the Playoffs. OGA – 23-for-26 (88.46%) 31
March 2009: The Edmonton Oilers. After Game 77, the Oilers
were called at Tee Time following their second worst performance
since the Lockout. Of the eight PQC evaluation periods during
the season, Edmonton was just at, or below, the PQC for seven of
them. Their trend was flat at .500 Hockey through Game 30, but
they made positive strides upward to overall.550 Hockey at the
Game 70 mark. When the season was most on the line, however,
they tanked the last 12 games, winning only 1/3 of them. This
disappointing effort netted them the #11 seed in the West and a
seat on the couch for the Playoffs.
OGA – 25-for-28 (89.23%) 1 April 2009: The Buffalo Sabres. At Game 76, the Sabres were called at Tee Time after their second worst performance since the Lockout. Many analysts would say after reading through the othe r26 teams’ breakdown above that Buffalo’s season was lost in the Game 11 – 20, 3.5-wins-in-10 timeframe. This was not actually the turning point because they began the season strong with 7-of-10 wins in their first furlong. They also played right along the PQC in Games 21 – 50. They actually lost momentum in the Game 51 – 80 mark where they only played .500 Hockey which pushed them downward to the East’s #10 seed and out on the Links. OGA – 24-for-27 (88.89%) 4 April 2009: The Carolina Hurricanes. At Game 79, the Hurricanes could no longer be denied a call of Chasing Stanley, their first since their 2006 Stanley Cup Championship. Carolina only had two blips on the furlong radar screen during the season – the Game 21 – 30 and 41 – 50 periods. They were significant enough that playing along the PQC for most of the rest of the season made every ‘Canes fan nervous until Game 71. In the last dozen games, Carolina won 9.5 games, which stands tied alongside St. Louis as the best down-the-stretch performance of any NHL team. They ended the season in the #6 Eastern Conference seed, aligned against the New Jersey Devils in Round 1 of the 2009 Playoffs. OGA – 26-for-29 (89.7%) 12 April 2009: The Florida Panthers. At Game 82, it was obvious the Panthers were finishing the season as the Eastern Conference’s #9 seed, tied with Montreal, but losing the 8th slot on tiebreakers. It was obvious in the standings, but not obvious in the PQC until all games were played that evening. You can pick a spot – any spot – in the season where they could have been entering the Playoffs if they just found it within to rise up for one more win. Maybe it could have happened best in the first 20 games where they only won 8.5 of them. But any way you slice it, their IN or OUT call strictly using the PQC was never satisfied by the data, so no call was made. Thus OGA remains 26-for-29 (89.7%) A graphical representation of the IN and OUT call is in Table 1 at this link. Of note:
Again, all of the above was done at 89.7% accuracy as the season was in progress. That beats Vegas any day of the week. For a one-time contribution of $10, you can follow OGA and the PQC in The Daily Tip In Report (DTIR) the way WE track the early Playoff entry or exit call. Use the PQC to blow away everybody at the water cooler long before the mathematics of it all indicates a team is IN or OUT of the 2010 Playoffs. Make that key trade on your fantasy team to pick up the under-the-radar fantasy Hockey player whose team is hot and will not be denied their Playoff fate. Or tell your organization it is time to do something NOW to salvage the season – IN DECEMBER! Do not be denied daily analysis of your team’s progress towards the prize with OGA’s DTIR. Run, don’t walk, click, don’t search for this hyperlink to the OGA Store so you will not be denied the inside scoop before the insiders will say it. Why are you still here on this page? Go get your 89.7% accuracy MONTHS ahead of the math, right now... |
 from NBCsports.com 12 June 2009 |